A hornet's nest - what a difference a year makes

You have to give Apple credit for one thing - they've really stirred up a hornet's nest in the tablet computer business. Think back just one year - does anyone remember a single mention of "tablet computer?" Probably not unless it was an historical reference to Alan Kaye's Dyanabook design (1968), the Apple Newton (1993) or Microsoft's tablet announcement (2000). With the exception of "convertibles" and other variations on the PC notebook theme, major computer companies did not appear to have a tablet device under consideration - much less development.

Fast forward to the present. Technologizer just published a list of 32 tablets from 26 companies. A few are available; most are "coming soon". Vendors include the big names - HP, Motorola, Dell, RIM, Samsung, Sony, Cisco, Lenovo and Toshiba - but others are really a stretch - Nefonia and Fushion Garage for example. Very few are direct competitors to the iPad; some are aimed at students with very low cost and others are directed specifically toward businesses. Some are as small as 5 inch screens; the iPad is 9.7. CIO has a discussion of 15 Apple iPad Rivals as well. It's phenomenal that a category of product that did not exist a year ago is all everybody is talking about - not just a gadget but a whole category of gadgets. Certainly the personal computer was a new product category but it took ten years to catch on (1975-1985).

A look back at the Internet
This situation reminds me of the time way back in 1995 when I wrote an article on the "new thing" called The Internet ("The" was capitalized in those days). Now the Internet wasn't really new then; it had been in wide spread use in the Defense Department, universities and research institutions for years. In those days mere mortals could search specific locations on line using Compuserve, AOL and Prodigy. You couldn't Google or search Web sites since Google and the Web had not been invented.

I did search the archives of the Minneapolis Star Tribune using Compuserve and saw that three years earlier there was only one mention of the Internet; a year later it was less than a hundred; from then on it exploded into the thousands. That's the trend I see happening now - not just due to the iPad - but the Mobile Internet in general which includes smartphones and other devices yet to be named. I predict that in three years most people will find it hard to imagine a world without tablet computers.

A technology refresher - back to the basics

Many of the new technologies and “gadgets” we encounter today are related to the “Mobile Internet”. You’ve probably heard the term and have some vague notion what it’s all about. It can be embarrassing though, to ask questions in this area when everyone in the room seems to understand what’s happening – except you! Believe me, you’re not alone; most people have little comprehension of the dramatic changes that are occurring today – changes that will completely alter the way we work, play, learn and communicate in the very near future.

A little background

The Internet is a collection of millions of computers connected by a complex collection of cables. A set of programs - often called protocols - make these computers work together. The World Wide Web (the Web) is collection of files that are stored on Internet computers (called servers). These files can be viewed on your computer using a browser program and they are sent to your computer by a program called a Web server.

There are numerous programs besides the Web that use the Internet – an email application such as outlook would be one; file download using FTP is another non-Web application that uses the Internet. Incidentally, your computer can have a Web server installed allowing people all over the world to access files you want to share – you can host your own Web site and it is really not that difficult to do.

Now some basic definitions

A Feature Phone is a cell phone that can store your contacts, send and receive email, browse the Web, play music, etc. It comes with a built-in set of programs (called apps – short for applications).

A Smart Phone is a step up from a feature phone since you can easily install apps yourself. The Apple iPhone 3G released in 2008 was the first true smart phone but many others have been introduced since that time. The MobileBurn Web site contains a searchable database of recent phones. Apps on these phones use the Internet and may or may not use the Web. The important point is they are very simple to use and do not involve a browser – they connect directly to various Internet/Web services with the simple touch of a button.

A Netbook is a small, low powered, low cost laptop computer. They are light duty computers intended for mobile tasks including email and Web surfing. Their low powered processors can not handle video production and their small screens and keyboards also limit their uses.

An eBook Reader - or just e-reader - such as the Amazon Kindle is primarily used for reading books downloaded from the Internet. Their specialized “eInk” displays are said to be easier on the eyes than a traditional display for extensive reading. They are very lightweight and some can also surf the Web.

A modern Tablet Computer is a “real” computer since it has a general-purpose operating system and the basic hardware elements of a PC. The Apple iPad is the best know example at the present. Virtually every major electronics company would like to produce an “iPad killer” and there are announcements every week by somebody who will make one “soon”. Recently discussed and announced models have included smaller screens than the iPad, have been directed toward business more than consumers and are promoted for content creation and not primarily consumption. Most tablets discussed so far use smart phone operating systems but others will use a mobile version of Windows 7 to mimic a standard PC.

What Lies Ahead

·  Confusion will be rampant in the near term since it will be difficult to distinguish one category from another. Is a device with a five-inch screen a large smart phone or a small tablet?  As new devices come out, new categories will emerge as well.

·  The typical wireless data plan has allowed users unlimited data downloads for a fixed fee of $30. That will change soon since smart phone and tablet usage is overwhelming the infrastructure of the carriers. Some are already moving toward “tiered” pricing where you pay for different levels of capacity.

·  Many of the specialized “gadgets” we have today will be “rolled into” smart phones and tablets. You will no longer need basic cameras, GPS navigation devices, MP3 and DVD players, calculators and a host of other devices since these can easily be incorporated into smart phones and tablets.

·  Since tablets are general-purpose devices, they pose a serious threat to both netbooks and ebook readers.

·  Just as a few companies have dominated the PC industry, it is likely that many smart phone and tablet makers will be knocked out of contention in the next few years; Investors and consumers are already placing their bets.

·  Speech recognition will be widely used to dictate text, search the Web and perform other basic data entry tasks. Versions available today are very accurate, easy to use and inexpensive. Users will find that the best keyboard may often be no keyboard.

The new world of the Mobile Internet is here and the fast pace of change occurring now means our information society will be completely remade in ways we can barely imagine today.

The Dark Side of the digital age

Many of us take more photos on a long weekend than we did the entire time we used film cameras. Arguably the quality is improved based on immediate feedback and numerous retakes. We also avoid finding out when our film is developed - and our vacation is over - that an entire roll was poorly exposed due to unusual lighting conditions or an improper camera setting. All in all we feel like we've solved one of the world's greatest problems - documenting our lives for future generations. After all we repeatedly view, sort and arrange those precious pictures taken a century ago. We hang them on the wall and proudly point to great-uncle Eggbert as we relate our family's illustrious or not-so illustrious history. But there is a looming downside to the digital age and it affects much more than our photo libraries.

I'm often ask about the best way to store/archive photos and other files for the long term and I give the same simplistic answers as every other "expert" - make copies on CDs, store them off-site, etc., etc. But the very serious problem of long term storage of files of all types was discussed recently in Computerworld and here is a hint of the problem.

The Domesday book - a detailed property ownership survey in England commissioned by William the Conqueror - was published in 1086. It was recorded on sheepskin and written in Latin. In 1986 an updated version was prepared using the latest technology - laser discs. Guess which one was readable fifteen years later - assuming you or a friend could read Latin. That's right, the 935 year old book could be read but the "modern version" could not because the laser disc players and software were obsolete. Reading the 1986 version required significant custom hardware and software engineering.

Reading at least part of the the article by Lamont Wood is informative. Organizations with substantial concerns include the Library of Congress, the National Archives and the U.S. Geological Survey and you can forget about gigabytes; they talk in terabytes and petabytes (one thousand and one million gigabytes respectively.) The problem is reminiscent of the Year 2000 Problem but this one will not be over in five years. Digital data has the potential to last literally forever - it's all just collections of zeros and ones - providing archiving strategies are developed to store those quadrillions (petabytes) of bits.

E-reader fire sale?

If you're thinking about taking the plunge and purchasing one of the many e-readers (sometimes called e-book readers), you should know that competition is heating up. New models - some with color screens and other extra features - will be introduced over the next few months. For a discussion of what's happening read this excellent Computerworld article.

Tablet wars just beginning

While tablet computers have existed for years, they've had limited appeal - particularly for consumers. The Apple iPad released just five months ago exploded on the market and now every electronics company wants to produce an "iPad Killer". This quote from an excellent article on the tablet market is informative

It may be true that the 2010 holiday season belongs to the iPad for tablets and that laptop-minded customers are not ready yet for tablet PCs. But 2011 will be the year when the tablet wars begin in earnest, says [Tim Bajarin from Creative Strategies] and Microsoft can't afford to be late. 

While the article focuses on Microsoft, there is also good information about a number of other important tablet developments by major companies.

Comparing Apples and Androids

I've been thinking about this topic for some time and decided now that the back-to-school and Christmas shopping seasons are upon it's to time do it - and nothing represents the Christmas spirit like a shiny new Motorola DROID 2 running the Android 2.2 "Froyo" OS and including Flash Player 10.1, a 3.7 inch screen, a slide-out QWERTY keyboard, a five (count 'em five) megapixel camera, an 8GB microSD card and a 3G mobile hotspot feature (for an amazingly low $20 per month.) Am I right?

All kidding aside (you did know I was kidding?) I thought it would help to summarize what is happening in the major technical competition of our day - the battle between Apple and Android phones. I use an iPhone so my knowledge of the Android market is limited to what I read and hear from colleagues. Any comments you can add will be appreciated. First a summary of major points you need to know:

Apple - Simplicity is the key - If you want to walk into a store, pick up a phone, set it up and begin using it in an hour, buy an iPhone.

• Easy to setup and use

• Easy to select - only two models and one decision - 3Gs or the latest 4G (16GB or 32GB)

• One operating system - iOS

• One carrier - AT&T - for now

• Number of apps - Huge

• Well designed portal - iTunes Store

• One source of apps - Apple App Store

• Tightly controlled apps - security, viruses, etc.

• Small size - pocket or purse

Android - Vast array of choices and decisions - If you want a carrier other than AT&T, or a physical keyboard, a larger screen or other specific hardware features and want no restrictions on your apps, then buy an Android phone.

• Choice of vendor - HTC, Motorola, LG, Sony-Ericsson, Google, Acer, Samsung and others

• Multiple designs - Each vendor can design their own phones and most have more than one version resulting in nearly a hundred different Android phones available today
• Wide array of features that vary from model to model - larger screen sizes, more physical buttons, physical QWERTY keyboards, higher resolution cameras, customizable screen layouts, dedicated social network functions, etc.

• Multiple OS variations - There are currently five different Android operating systems in use (1.5-2.2) and each vendor can add their own user interface (UI) to the OS.
• Multiple app sources

• Unrestricted apps

• Number of apps - Huge

• Competition will cause prices to drop

There are of course many other smartphones available but Apple and the Android family are all the rage today. Apple defined the category with the iPhone 3G in 2008. Google changed the game by introducing an operating system that runs on many phones and dozens of companies seized on this approach. This is reminiscent of the PC wars in recent years - Apple versus the "PC".

While it is often stated that Apple lost that battle, remember that IBM - the other major player - failed in the business altogether due to brutal price competition. Contrary to poplar wisdom, IBM tried to stop others from making PCs but less than ten months after the IBM PC was introduced in 1981, the first clones were announced.

The current hoard of Android phone manufacturers might look like an army storming the Apple "castle". What should not be overlooked in this scenario is that the attacking warriors are also trying to destroy each other - not a pretty scene. Who will ultimately prevail as the preeminent Android provider (like the 1990s Dell or HP) is anybody's guess.

The variety of choices in Android hardware and operating systems is confusing for many people. These differences can cause serious problems for vendors as well as explained in this article by JR Raphael in CompterWorld. Raphael is normally a vociferous Android proponent.

A footnote about Apple: Rumors have circulated for years about another carrier for the iPhone. In the past these have sounded more like hopeful speculation for the "I hate AT&T crowd" and those with poor AT&T service but recently the rumors have coalesced into a strong possibility that Verizon will be a choice after the first of the year. Stay tuned.

A fight to the death in the eBook wars

Early this year everybody was going to sell an ebook reader to compete with the Kindle. However, the introduction of the $500 iPad - also an ebook reader - changed everything. The IEEE Spectrum has a really good discussion of the latest developments in this fast changing field - who's in who's out and who's on the ropes. As the price wars continue, remember an ebook reader is only as good as its supply of books. As companies drop out of the race their devices could become $200 boat anchors. Whoops, sorry about the old cliche - boat anchors need to weigh more than a pound!

More info about spotting dangerous web site links

 A reader ask for more information on this item from a previous post.

An address you see in an email message or web page may look legitimate but the link connected to that address may be entirely different. The button or words you click on are totally arbitrary and the underlying web address (the hyperlink) is what matters.

There are two easy ways to discover the real address of a clickable button or text phrase. You can "hover" over the item - move your mouse pointer over it without clicking - and see the real link displayed - usually at the lower left border of the browser window. You can also right click on the text or button and choose "copy the link" or "copy the shortcut". Then past this into your browser window address bar or any other document and see the actual link displayed. Both approaches - hover and copy/paste should also work with email messages that include links.


As mentioned in the earlier post, you should look closely at the Top Level Domain Name - which includes .com, .edu, .gov and country codes such as .us, .ch, .ru, etc.

Why you can be robbed blind in Cameroon without ever going there

The country code for Cameroon is .cm and a common mistake is to type .cm instead of .com. If you accidentally type MyBigBank.cm instead of MyBigBank.com, you will go to an entirely different site and could be tricked into providing the password for your account on a web page that is a perfect copy of the legitimate bank site you normally see.

"Phishing" is an attempt to trick you into providing personal information such as bank account or Social Security numbers to someone who will use it dishonestly. Modern techniques are very sophisticated versions of the "Nigerian official who wants to share $40 million with you" scams.

These are seductive since they appear to be messages from a source you know and they are addressed to you by name - not "dear friend". Often they are requests for you to update contact information and will appear to come from the address of a bank or store you deal with and will have the logo of the institution prominently displayed.

If you know only one thing about Internet addresses, you can avoid many of these plots. 

A PC Defender - What do you think of his idea?

John Dvorak, a well known PC writer. has this to say when comparing desktop PCs to mobile devices "With my PC I can actually calculate, with accuracy, the trajectory of a rocket shot to the moon, and the amount of fuel it needs to get there. On my desktop." Is this something we all need to worry about? Read the entire article in PC Magazine.